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The Monthly Banker: 12 November 2015
French 10yr Bond Yield retraces...


The low level of the RSI indicator late last month shows that the prior decline by the French 10-year Bond Yield had become oversold.  A recovery rally was duly witnessed.  At the start of November, the yield broke initial resistance around 1%.  However, the breakout was not maintained, and there is a 'bull trap' risk of a further retracement back towards the sideways area near 0.8%.



Weekly Comment:


Government Bond Futures 


US - The 2-year Treasury Note recently accelerated (trend-ending feature) to previous support at the July low near 108.9.  The short-term decline had also become oversold, and a rebound has occurred.  That small rally does show some loss of momentum near 109.15, but a more forceful down move would be needed in order to offset scope for some further recovery.


UK - After breaking sideways trading around 117, the Long Gilt future looks rather top heavy.  A sustained push over 118 would be required to offset the danger of additional slippage within the year's prior base.


Europe - Finding firm uptrend support at the 50-day MA during the week, theEuro 2-year Schatzinstrument reversed its correction from overbought.  What is more, the price also resumed the advance to trade at a new contract high on 11 November.


Asia - The latest correction by the Japanese Government Bond future has stabilized by uptrend support at the 50-day MA.  A sustained fall beneath that line would have to occur in order to damage this pattern.

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