Analysis & Comment:
Previous 'The Monthly Banker'
The Monthly Banker: 7 March 2014
The French 10 year Bond Yieldhas steadied slightly during the course of the week. However, the overall pattern since mid-2013 is clearly top heavy. A clearance of both the 50 and 200-day moving averages, which have crossed near February resistance around 2.3%, would have to be witnessed in order to improve this chart pattern.
Government Bond Futures
US - The US 10 year Treasury Note has failed to maintain the break over February's ceiling and the 200-day moving average. This has led to 'bull trap' reaction towards initial support at 124.094; near the 50-day MA. Should that fail, there will be a small top in place, which could force a further retracement of the rally from 123.
UK - UK Gilts half-heartedly tried to clear short-term range resistance near 111; at the 200-day MA during the week. Prices drift towards last month's floor at 109.3. Should that support yield, a small top formation will be in place, which could, in turn, lead to lower levels.
Europe - The 3 month Euribor contract has made several attempts to break over the 99.80 ceiling since late 2012. More recently, the issue has been narrowly ranging beneath that barrier, unable to get beyond 99.785 since late January. Still, a fall under the 200-day MA, currently situated near 99.65, is needed to show significant pattern damage.